Investment Thesis Sanity Gate

    2

    Turn a messy investment idea into an evidence-first thesis audit with weak points, disconfirming data, and next research actions.

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    Investment Thesis Sanity Gate

    Example session with this skill installed

    Use investment-thesis-sanity-gate on this idea. Asset: Northstar Pumps, a fictional industrial pump manufacturer. Thesis: EBITDA can grow faster than revenue over the next 18 months because supply-chain costs are normalizing, aftermarket mix is rising, and leverage should fall enough for a valuation re-rating. Time horizon: 12-18 months. Evidence: FY2025 revenue +7% and adjusted EBITDA margin 12.4% vs 14.8% pre-disruption, dated 2026-03-12. Q1 2026 orders +9%, aftermarket revenue +16% to 31% of sales, and management comment that supplier expedite fees should normalize by Q4 2026, dated 2026-05-08. User peer table dated 2026-05-10 shows pump peers at 9-11x NTM EBITDA while Northstar is estimated at 7.8x. Current concern: The company has 42% revenue exposure to chemical and energy capex, plus a 2027 debt maturity. Am I underwriting a recovery that may already be priced in?

    • Read your context and instructions
    • Compiled the investment thesis sanity

    Investment Thesis Sanity Gate

    Thesis Snapshot

    Northstar has a plausible margin-recovery thesis, but the evidence is not yet decision-ready. The upside depends on EBITDA margin recovery, aftermarket mix durability, and a peer-multiple re-rating. The main downside risks are cyclical capex exposure and refinancing risk.

    Claim Audit

    Claim TypeStatusNotes
    BusinessSupportedAftermarket revenue grew 16% and reached 31% of sales, but durability through a downturn is not proven.
    FinancialWeakThe 12.4% to 15% margin bridge needs cost, price, volume, and mix math.
    ValuationWeakThe 7.8x to 9x re-rating needs peer adjustments for leverage, growth, margin, and cyclicality.
    RiskSupportedChemical/energy capex exposure and the 2027 debt maturity are material risks.

    Disconfirming Evidence to Find

    • Backlog conversion and cancellation rates by end market.
    • Gross margin bridge separating supplier expedite fees from mix and pricing.
    • Refinancing terms, covenant headroom, and interest expense sensitivity.

    Decision Gate

    Verdict: Proceed to deeper research. This is a research green light, not a buy/sell/hold recommendation.

    Connects securely to your tools. The creator never sees your data.

    About this skill

    What it does

    The Investment Thesis Sanity Gate acts as a rigorous quality-control filter for equity research and financial analysis. It transforms draft investment notes, watchlist ideas, or pre-IC (Investment Committee) memos into a structured audit that tests the strength of your conviction. By decomposing your thesis into verifiable claims, the skill separates objective evidence from speculative assumptions and logical inferences.

    Why use this skill

    Even for experienced analysts, it is easy to fall into the trap of "story-based investing" or ignoring disconfirming data. This skill is better than manual prompting because it follows a systematic Phase-Gate methodology: checking input completeness, auditing evidence quality by date, and running specific stress tests like 'priced-in' expectations and 'what would make me change my mind.' It moves beyond simple summarization to proactively identify research gaps.

    Supported Outputs

    • Thesis Snapshot: A high-level mapping of drivers, risks, and evidence timelines.
    • Claim Audit: A status-coded breakdown (Supported/Weak/Contradicted) of business, market, financial, and catalyst claims.
    • Evidence Map: Categorization of inputs into Evidence, Assumptions, and Inferences with confidence levels.
    • Decision Gate: A final research verdict (e.g., Proceed, Watchlist, or Reject) with specific next-step research actions.

    This skill provides decision support, not personalized financial advice. It does not issue buy/sell/hold instructions, target prices, or guaranteed return claims. Output quality depends on the user's supplied thesis, evidence, dates, valuation assumptions, and risk notes. It does not fetch live market data unless the user's agent separately has browsing or data tools enabled.

    How to use

    1. 1

      Connect your agent to the Agensi MCP

      Copy the prompt and paste it into Claude, ChatGPT, Cursor or any agent that supports MCP. It sets up the connection for you. Manual setup

    2. 2

      Sign in to Agensi

      Your agent shows a sign-in link. Sign in and click Allow.

    3. 3

      Ask for what you need

      Your agent loads this skill and uses it on your task. It always asks before any payment.

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    Trust & safety

    Security scan

    Security scan passed 4 months ago

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    Listed4 months ago

    What's inside

    Frequently Asked Questions

    This skill is designed to eliminate confirmation bias by auditing your research notes. It identifies logical gaps, flags outdated data, and separates speculative stories from verifiable evidence to ensure your investment ideas can stand up to scrutiny.

    The Sanity Gate is compatible with most leading LLMs (such as GPT-4o or Claude 3.5) and can be easily integrated into your existing AI agent workflow or research platform by importing the provided skill configuration.

    Simply copy the skill definition into your agent's configuration panel and provide your draft investment notes; the tool will immediately begin its Phase-Gate auditing process without any complex coding required.

    Each purchase includes the full logic for the Thesis Snapshot, Claim Audit, Evidence Map, and Decision Gate outputs, along with a user guide on how to provide the most effective raw notes for analysis.

    The skill is built to handle raw text from various sources, including earnings call transcripts, analyst notes, news articles, and personal investment memos, as long as they are provided in a readable text format.

    As part of our commitment to quality, buyers receive lifetime access to all future refinements of the auditing logic, ensuring your research gate stays current with evolving market analysis standards.

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