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- 归因行业研报 · Report Attributor
归因行业研报 · Report Attributor
把行业研报拆解成可验证的归因链:数据口径、驱动因素、置信度与反方观点逐条标注,避免照单全收。 Break industry reports into verifiable attribution chains: data definitions, drivers, confidence, and counterarguments, flagged item by item.
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归因行业研报 · Report Attributor
Example session with this skill installed
这份储能行业研报说「2026年出货量翻倍,利好龙头」,帮我做归因拆解,看看结论靠不靠谱。
- Read your context and instructions
- Compiled the report attributor
归因结论
「出货量翻倍 → 利好龙头」这条链条只成立一半:需求高增长(高置信)是真的,但「龙头受益」假设了价格与份额不变,报告未给出证据,置信度低。
一、事实与数据层
| 结论 | 报告依据 | 数据口径 | 置信度 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 出货量翻倍 | 引用第三方装机预测 | 全球口径,含海外 | 中 |
| 价格企稳 | 单月招标均价环比持平 | 样本仅 3 个项目 | 低 |
| 龙头集中度提升 | 未给份额数据 | 缺 | 低 |
二、归因链检查
- 需求翻倍 ≠ 收入翻倍:报告未考虑价格下行;
- 需求高增 ≠ 龙头受益:二线厂商扩产更快时,份额可能被稀释;
- 「翻倍」是总量增速,但报告未拆分国内外与储能类型。
三、反方观点(报告未提)
- 产能过剩:全行业扩产计划已超过需求预测;
- 海外关税与本地化要求可能压缩出口利润;
- 招标价若继续下探,毛利可能先于出货量恶化。
四、敏感性提示
- 若价格年降 15%,龙头收入增长将被抵消约一半;
- 若海外份额不达预期,翻倍预测需下调至 1.4 倍。
下一步
- 核对原始装机预测的发布机构与更新日期;
- 找龙头公司最近两个季度的份额与毛利率变化;
- 把本拆解与另一家机构报告做交叉对比。
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What you get
About this skill
它解决什么问题
读行业研报最怕「结论很笃定,数据对不上」:券商与咨询报告常把相关当因果、用样本替代全量、把预测说成事实。直接让 AI 总结,往往照抄结论,还替它背书。
这个技能做什么
把研报结论拆成「事实 → 数据 → 归因 → 预测」四层:标注每个数字的口径与来源,区分驱动因素与相关因素,给每条结论打置信度,并补上研报没提的反方观点与敏感性风险。
为什么比裸提示词强
- 不照抄:结论必须挂数据与逻辑链。
- 带置信度:哪些可采信、哪些是讲故事一目了然。
- 补反方:强制列出反面证据与失效条件。
典型用例
- 投研前快速拆解一份行业深度报告。
- 对比两份观点相反的研报。
- 把研报要点整理成内部讨论材料。
局限
不提供新的市场数据,只基于你给的报告文本;涉及具体投资建议请结合合规要求自行判断。
English · 英文介绍
The problem
The biggest fear when reading industry research reports is that "the conclusions are very firm, but the data does not match up": Brokerage firms and consulting reports often treat correlation as cause and effect, use samples to replace full quantities, and describe predictions as facts. Directly asking AI to summarize, often copying the conclusion and endorsing it.
What it does
Divide the conclusions of the research report into four layers: "facts → data → attribution → prediction": mark the caliber and source of each number, distinguish driving factors and related factors, give confidence to each conclusion, and add negative opinions and sensitivity risks that are not mentioned in the research report.
Why is it better than naked prompt words?
- Don’t copy: The conclusion must be linked to data and logic.
- With confidence: it is clear at a glance which ones are acceptable and which ones are storytelling.
- Complaint: Mandatory listing of negative evidence and failure conditions.
Typical use cases
- Quickly disassemble an in-depth industry report before investing in research.
- Compare two research reports with opposite views.
- Organize the key points of the research report into internal discussion materials.
Limitations
It does not provide new market data and is only based on the report text you gave. Please make your own judgment based on compliance requirements when it comes to specific investment suggestions.
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