market regime shift radar

The problem

Traders often commit to a directional bias based on isolated price action, leading to "bull traps" or missing major reversals. Without a systematic way to verify macro liquidity and intermarket signals, it is difficult to distinguish between a genuine trend and market noise.

What it does

• Classifies market environments as Risk-On, Risk-Off, or Transition using a multi-asset diagnostic.
• Scores macro, intermarket, liquidity, structure, volume, and derivatives signals on a -2 to +2 scale.
• Identifies leading indicators like credit spreads and USD volatility that often move before equity indices.
• Highlights conflicting signals to prevent overconfidence in ambiguous environments.
• Generates specific bias implications for equities, fixed income, commodities, FX, and crypto.

Why this beats prompting it yourself

This skill enforces a strict multi-category heuristic that prevents the LLM from over-weighting lagging indicators like simple moving averages. It requires cross-referencing liquidity and derivatives data, ensuring the assessment is rooted in institutional flow rather than just retail chart patterns.

Use cases

• Verifying if a breakout is backed by macro liquidity before entering a swing trade.
• Assessing regime shifts immediately following CPI prints or FOMC rate decisions.
• Managing risk by identifying when high-beta assets like crypto are diverging from credit spreads.
• Determining whether to hedge a portfolio based on widening credit spreads and VIX term structure.

Known limitations

Requires the user to provide or the agent to have access to current macro and derivatives data. Confidence scores are automatically reduced if liquidity or options data is missing.