trend or chop decision coach

The problem

Traders often apply trend-following strategies to sideways markets or chase breakouts during unstable news events, leading to significant drawdowns. Relying on a single strategy across all market conditions ignores the structural reality that asset behaviors shift between trending, ranging, and erratic states.

What it does

• Analyzes price series, volume, and volatility data to classify market regimes.
• Evaluates trend strength using ADX, moving average alignment, and price action structure.
• Identifies support and resistance respect levels to distinguish ranging from unstable environments.
• Generates a weighted classification (Trending vs. Ranging vs. Unstable) with a confidence score.
• Produces a concrete strategy roadmap detailing which systems to consider, reduce, or avoid.

Why this beats prompting it yourself

Standard prompts often result in vague "bullish" or "bearish" sentiment analysis. This skill enforces a rigorous framework that maps technical indicators to specific strategy families, preventing the common mistake of ignoring regime-specific risk profiles.

Use cases

• Identify when to switch from mean-reversion to trend-following systems.
• Determine if current volatility justifies staying flat or reducing position sizes.
• Validate breakout setups by checking if ADX and DI spreads support sustainable momentum.
• Audit portfolio positioning against the current market structure.

Known limitations

Requires historical price and volatility data to be provided in the prompt. Does not execute trades or provide specific entry/exit prices.