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Stock Research Report & Thesis Builder
Converts raw stock data and filings into professional, evidence-led equity research reports with adversarial testing. Stock Research Report
$19.99
Stock Research Report & Thesis Builder
Example session with this skill installed
Analyze these notes on NVIDIA (NVDA) regarding their data center growth and build a preliminary thesis with counter-arguments and a monitoring checklist.
- Read your context and instructions
- Compiled the stock research report
I have processed your notes on NVIDIA's data center segment. I have organized the evidence into a preliminary thesis, identified three core pillars, and constructed a substantive counter-thesis focused on cyclicality and competition.
Equity Research Report: NVIDIA (NVDA)
Research as of: 2023-10-27
Evidence status: Preliminary / Research Notes Review
1. Investment Thesis
| Pillar | Claim | Evidence | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data Center Dominance | H100/H200 demand creates a multi-year lead. | Notes indicate a 6-12 month backlog for H100 units. | High switching costs for CUDA developers lock in hyperscaler spend. |
| Margin Expansion | Software-defined networking (Mellanox) increases attach rate. | Reported segment margins improved from 65% to 70%+. | Shift from pure silicon to platform sales drives operating leverage. |
2. Counter-Thesis
The "Air Pocket" Risk: The current backlog may lead to over-ordering by hyperscalers. If demand plateaus, the inventory correction could be severe.
*
ASIC Competition: In-house chip development by major customers (AWS Trainium, Google TPU) threatens long-term market share in specific AI workloads.
3. Monitoring Checklist
| Metric / Event | Baseline | Frequency | Warning Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data Center Revenue Growth | 171% YoY (Q2) | Quarterly | Growth slowing below 50% YoY |
| Inventory Levels | $4.3B | Quarterly | Inventory rising faster than sales |
| Lead Times | 35-50 weeks | Monthly | Rapid collapse in lead times < 12 weeks |
Next steps
- Review the "Air Pocket" section and add any specific customer commentary you have from the last earnings call.
- Provide specific P/E or EV/EBITDA assumptions to build the valuation scenarios.
- Verify the current backlog duration using the latest supply chain reports.
Connects securely to your tools. The creator never sees your data.
About this skill
Investment research often suffers from confirmation bias, fragmented notes, and a lack of rigorous testing. This skill functions as a senior equity research analyst and auditor, converting raw data and scattered observations into a professional, evidence-led investment thesis. It forces structural balance by requiring both a bull thesis and a substantive counter-thesis, ensuring that every claim is tied to traceable source material.
What it does
- Thesis construction builds a structured investment case with supporting pillars, economic mechanisms, and invalidation conditions.
- Evidence classification inventories data into company-reported facts, analyst estimates, and unverified claims to maintain traceability.
- Financial auditing assesses revenue growth, margins, and cash flow quality while flagging red flags like rising leverage or share dilution.
- Adversarial analysis develops rigorous counter-arguments and bear cases to stress-test the primary investment thesis.
- Catalyst mapping identifies specific events, milestones, and timing triggers that could impact share performance.
- Monitoring frameworks generates actionable checklists with baseline metrics and warning indicators for ongoing research.
How it works
- Define scope by providing a company ticker and the central investment debate or research question.
- Input data by uploading filings, earnings transcripts, financial models, or raw research notes.
- Classify and normalize the evidence to resolve inconsistencies and group data by business segment or financial metric.
- Generate report based on the 12-section standard equity research format, including valuation scenarios and a risk register.
Frameworks & tools
This skill is designed for analysts using primary sources such as SEC filings, annual reports (10-K), quarterly results (10-Q), and earnings call transcripts. It works effectively with financial modeling outputs and technical market observations.
Why this beats prompting it yourself
Standard prompts often produce generic summaries or "hallucinate" financial figures. This skill follows a 13-step audit workflow that enforces the separation of facts from assumptions and refuses to manufacture missing data, providing a much higher standard of evidentiary integrity.
Use cases
- Research synthesis for turning messy earnings call notes into a structured report.
- Pre-investment diligence to identify fragile assumptions and missing evidence before taking a position.
- Quarterly updates to track company performance against an existing monitoring checklist.
- Adversarial review to build the strongest possible bear case against a popular stock idea.
Known limitations
Does not provide personalized financial advice or buy/sell instructions. Cannot calculate valuations or target prices if the user does not supply the necessary financial inputs or assumptions.
Does not provide financial advice. Requires user-supplied data for valuation calculations. Cannot verify live market data unless browsing is enabled.
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