sector rotation opportunity map

The problem

Investors and analysts often struggle to determine if current market leadership is a short-term fluke or a fundamental shift in the economic cycle. Manually reconciling macro indicators, historical GICS sector performance, and secular trends like AI or reshoring is time-consuming and prone to recency bias.

What it does

• Classifies the current economic phase (Recession to Late Expansion) using macro signals like GDP, inflation, and yield curves.
• Maps all 11 GICS sectors to their historical performance benchmarks across 40+ years of US market data.
• Overlays structural trends including Digitalization, Energy Transition, and Geopolitical Fragmentation to adjust baseline cycle ratings.
• Identifies divergences where historical cycle leaders are failing to perform, flagging potential contrarian opportunities.
• Generates a structured Sector Scorecard with Overweight/Underweight ratings based on cycle, trend, and momentum scores.

Why this beats prompting it yourself

This skill provides a systematic framework that prevents the LLM from hallucinating sector correlations or ignoring historical cycle data. It enforces a multi-step analytical process that weights macro indicators against specific structural tailwinds, ensuring the output is grounded in documented market regimes rather than generic financial advice.

Use cases

• Rebalancing sector-based equity portfolios during shifts in Fed policy.
• Conducting top-down thematic research for investment committees or client reports.
• Identifying lagging sectors that historically lead in the next phase of the business cycle.
• Validating if a sector's current momentum is supported by underlying economic fundamentals.

Known limitations

Analysis is primarily based on US market data since 1980. Performance patterns are historical averages and may not account for unprecedented black swan events or extreme policy shifts.