risk of ruin reality checker

    1

    Stress-test trading strategies against ruin, drawdown, and losing streaks using fixed fractional math.

    $5

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    Works with the AI tools you already use

    Claude CodeClaude CodeCursorCursorCodex CLICodex CLIMuseMuseDotsDots+22 more

    risk of ruin reality checker

    Example session with this skill installed

    Run a reality check. Win rate 35%, payoff ratio 3:1, risk 2% per trade, 500 trades planned, $100k starting equity.

    • Read your context and instructions
    • Compiled the risk of ruin

    EV: 0.40 (Healthy). Risk of Ruin: <0.01%. Likely losing streak: 12 trades. Max Expected Drawdown: 21.5% ($21,530). ALERT: Aggressive risk per trade. MEDD exceeds 20%. Suggest reducing risk to 1.5% to stabilize drawdown.

    Connects securely to your tools. The creator never sees your data.

    What you get

    Validate the mathematical expectancy of a new trading strategy.Calculate the probability of account ruin over a 500-trade sequence.Determine the maximum likely losing streak for a given win rate.Optimize risk per trade to keep drawdown within specific tolerances.

    About this skill

    The problem

    Traders often overestimate the resilience of their strategies by ignoring the mathematical reality of losing streaks and drawdown. A strategy with a positive win rate can still lead to total account ruin if the risk per trade is too aggressive or the payoff ratio is insufficient.

    What it does

    • Calculates Expected Value (EV) per trade to determine long-term survival probability.
    • Computes the mathematical Risk of Ruin (ROR) using fixed fractional risk models.
    • Predicts the probability of consecutive losing streaks over a specific trade volume.
    • Estimates Maximum Expected Drawdown (MEDD) in both percentage and currency terms.
    • Identifies fragile money-management plans via automated alerts for negative expectancy or excessive risk.

    Why this beats prompting it yourself

    General LLMs often struggle with the specific exponents and logarithmic formulas required for accurate ruin theory. This skill applies structured mathematical models to ensure your drawdown estimates and losing streak probabilities are calculated correctly rather than just guessed.

    Use cases

    • Stress-test a new trading system before committing real capital.
    • Determine the maximum safe risk percentage for a specific win/loss profile.
    • Analyze the impact of a planned increase in trade frequency on account volatility.
    • Audit existing money-management rules against historical win rates.

    Known limitations

    Calculations assume independent trade outcomes and fixed fractional sizing. It does not account for correlated assets or martingales.

    How to install

    Works the same in every agent - Claude, Cursor, Codex, Copilot and 20+ more.

    ~30 seconds
    1. 1

      Download the ZIP

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    2. 2

      Unzip into your skills folder

      Every agent reads skills from one folder on your machine. Drop the unzipped folder in there.

    3. 3

      Ask your agent to use it

      Restart the agent if it was already running. It picks the skill up automatically - no config needed.

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    Fresh listing

    Recently published to Agensi

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    Trust & safety

    Security scanned

    Verified clean 1 month ago

    • Passed all security checks, Safe to install

    Listed1 month ago

    What's inside

    Frequently Asked Questions