Project Management Decision Engine

Methodology Assessment: Scrum → Hybrid?

📍 Diagnosis: Scrum Ceremony Without Scrum Discipline

Unpredictable velocity ≠ Scrum failure. Usually means:

1. Scope creep within sprints (saying yes to everything)
2. Unrealistic estimation (optimism bias)
3. External dependencies breaking sprint commitment

Don't Switch Yet — Fix Scrum First

Kanban won't solve estimation problems, it just hides them.

Fix Plan (2 Sprint Experiment)

Sprint N: Scope Lock

• No new work added after Sprint Planning (ZERO exceptions)
• Track: How much unplanned work sneaks in? (This is your real problem)

Sprint N+1: Realistic Estimation

• Use yesterday's weather: Plan only 70% of last sprint's completed points
• Track: Did you hit the sprint goal with 70% capacity?

If Still Unpredictable After 2 Sprints

→ Switch to Scrumban (Kanban flow + Scrum cadence)

• Daily standup: Keep it
• Sprint planning: Replace with weekly replenishment
• Velocity: Replace with cycle time + throughput
• Retrospective: Keep it, but focus on flow blockers

For Your 8-Person Team

Scrumban often works better than pure Scrum because:

• Less ceremony overhead (8 people × 2hr planning = expensive)
• More flexible for teams with mixed project types
• Still has rhythm and improvement cycles