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    Prediction Market Edge Analyzer — Find Which Categories Actu

    1

    Turn your Polymarket / Kalshi trade history into a category-by-category edge report: hit rate vs. break-even, expected-value advantage, and a clear verdict on which categories to keep and which to kill.

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    Prediction Market Edge Analyzer — Find Which Categories Actu

    Example session with this skill installed

    Analyze my Polymarket trades in trades.csv to find which categories have a positive edge and where I am losing the most money.

    • Read your context and instructions
    • Compiled the prediction market edge

    I have analyzed 333 settled trades from your CSV. The data shows a clear divergence between your performance in sports markets versus crypto-related event contracts.

    Prediction Market Performance Audit

    CategoryTradesHit RateAvg EntryBreak-evenEdge (pp)Net PnLResult
    Sports1425.63%0.0323.20%+2.43+$412.50✅ Profitable
    Politics8812.50%0.11511.50%+1.00+$185.00✅ Profitable
    Crypto651.54%0.0282.80%-1.26-$210.00❌ Bleeding
    Social380.00%0.0454.50%-4.50-$150.20❌ Bleeding

    Odds Bracket Breakdown

    BracketTradesWin CountActual Hit RateImplied ProbEdge
    < 2¢4500.00%1.45%-1.45
    2¢ - 5¢19084.21%3.10%+1.11
    5¢ - 10¢6857.35%7.80%-0.45
    > 10¢30413.33%12.10%+1.23

    Summary Findings:
    Your edge is strongest in the

    Sports category within the

    2¢ - 5¢ range. You are significantly overpaying for "moonshot" crypto bets (sub-2¢) where your realized hit rate is zero against an implied cost of 1.45%.

    Next steps

    1. Stop betting on Crypto markets with entry prices below 5¢; these are currently your largest source of drain.
    2. Increase size on Sports markets where entry is between 2¢ and 5¢ to capitalize on your +2.43pp edge.
    3. Export new data after 50 more trades to see if the Social category stabilizes or remains a total loss.

    Connects securely to your tools. The creator never sees your data.

    About this skill

    The problem

    Trading low-probability, high-payout markets feels great when you hit one — but you can't actually tell by hand whether you're profitable overall, or which category is quietly bleeding your bankroll.

    The method

    This skill applies one clean principle:

    Break-even hit rate ≈ your entry price. (Buy at 3¢ → you need >3% hit rate to be profitable.) edge = actual hit rate − average entry price

    • edge > 0 → that category has positive expectancy, keep it
    • edge < 0 → structural bleed, cut it

    Output

    A self-contained HTML report plus Markdown summary:

    • KPIs — wins, hit rate, total invested, net P&L, ROI
    • By category — trades, hit rate, break-even rate, edge (pp), average odds, net P&L, verdict
    • By odds band — performance across <2¢ / 2-5¢ / 5-10¢ / 10-20¢ / >20¢ entry ranges
    • Conclusion — automatically lists categories with positive expectancy

    Sample result (333 real trades)

    CategoryTradesHit rateBreak-evenEdgeNet P&LVerdict
    Sports events605.0%3.0%+2.0pp+113✅ Positive
    Crypto1491.3%2.7%−1.4pp−207❌ Negative
    Celebrity/social782.6%3.0%−0.4pp−43❌ Negative

    Insight: inefficiency (and edge) lives in low-liquidity event markets, not in efficiently-priced crypto markets.

    Input

    A generic CSV of your trades — column aliases supported (market/title, entry_price/price, invested/size, realized_profit/pnl, status). Category column optional (auto-inferred from market title).

    Disclaimer

    For research purposes only. Not investment advice.

    How to use

    Skills on Agensi run inside your AI agent. Copy the prompt, paste it into your agent, and it connects to Agensi and installs this skill for you. If a payment is needed, your agent shows it to you first.

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    Listed7 days ago

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