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    Polymarket Private Markets Trading Bot

    by Devin

    Advanced Polymarket agent that trades the private market segment, specifically focussed on IPO timing, mispricings and cross-market arbitrage opportunities.

    Updated Jun 2026
    Security scanned
    Best with Opus 4.8

    $5

    · or 25 credits

    30-day refund guarantee

    Secure checkout via Stripe

    Included in download

    • Identify arbitrage between related private company valuation markets.
    • Analyze SEC EDGAR filings to predict IPO window shifts before the crowd.
    • Ready for Best with Opus 4.8
    • Includes example output and usage patterns
    • Instant install

    See it in action

    A real example of what this skill takes in and produces.

    Sample output

    DECISION: TRADE (Poly-ID: STRIPE-IPO-2025) Price: $0.34 | Fair Value: $0.42 | Edge: 8% Signal: Coherence Violation. P(Stripe IPO 2025) < P(Stripe Valuation > $70B IPO). Action: Buy YES up to $0.36. Risk: High liquidity (Vol: $240k), Low resolution risk (SEC S-1 source).

    About This Skill

    Specialized Private Equity & IPO Market Intelligence

    The poly-private-markets skill transforms your AI agent into a sophisticated analyst for Polymarket's private company and IPO prediction markets. It solves the problem of "informational noise" by moving beyond news headlines to focus on cross-market coherence, resolution rule technicalities, and hard regulatory signals from SEC filings.

    Advanced Analytical Framework

    • Cross-Market Coherence: Detects mispricings by building "coherence webs" that identify logical contradictions between time ladders, valuation thresholds, and related entity markets.
    • Resolution Rule Forensic: Analyzes the fine print of market contracts to find edge in how "IPO," "valuation," and "official source" are strictly defined.
    • IPO Timing Signals: Correlates EDGAR filing activity (S-1/A, DRS) and macro proxies like the VIX or Renaissance IPO ETF to predict listing windows.
    • Noise Mean Reversion: Quantifies when to fade unconfirmed social media rumors versus when to respect official disclosures.

    Professional Risk Management

    Instead of simple "yes/no" guesses, this skill provides a developer-grade trading memo including Kelly Criterion sizing, liquidity-adjusted entry/exit prices, and specific resolution risk scores. It supports a disciplined workflow of paper trading, exit tracking, and calibration to ensure long-term edge over the retail crowd.

    Use Cases

    • Identify arbitrage between related private company valuation markets.
    • Analyze SEC EDGAR filings to predict IPO window shifts before the crowd.
    • Calculate optimal position sizing using Kelly Criterion and liquidity gates.
    • Generate trade memos with resolution-risk scoring and exit strategies.

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    Security Scanned

    Passed automated security review

    Permissions

    No special permissions declared or detected

    Tags

    prediction-markets
    private-equity
    ipo-analysis
    fintech
    arbitrage

    Best with Opus 4.8

    Creator

    D

    Frequently Asked Questions

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