Parallax Research Report Studio

Fictional demonstration from an actual local trial. This is not a real customer result. Local links and machine-specific paths are displayed as text.

The complete decision report is saved as editable Markdown and printable HTML, with claims, sources, and chart data.

Recommendation: prepare a four-session Saturday test in the existing room, conditional on cost estimates and bookings; defer a permanent expansion. The corrected pilot converts 66/150 attendees (44%). Revenue less the supplied costs is USD 1,365.90 before omitted overhead. Eight-week activity is 22/36 eligible members (61.1%); March is not yet observable.

The report is approximately 1,300 words. All five supplied sources were read, the correction reconciled, calculations executed with Decimal arithmetic, source copies checked, and chart scales derived from calculated values. Local Chromium checked desktop, mobile, print styles, and working contents links; top-page and both chart images were visually inspected. No external sources were consulted and no PDF was requested or generated. The lease cost, paid Saturday demand, and March retention outcome remain unknown.

report.md

# Northline Workshop second-session decision

## Recommendation

Prepare a four-session Saturday test in the existing room, conditional on a written cost estimate and evidence of bookings. Do not yet approve a permanent second weekly session or a second venue. The corrected January–March pilot shows that 66 of 150 trial attendees initially purchased membership, and revenue exceeded the supplied incremental costs by $1,365.90. That is encouraging evidence about this pilot's participants. It does not establish the economics or demand of another session. The existing room offers a limited way to test the next question without a new lease. S-A, S-M, S-D

The immediate decision should therefore authorize preparation, followed by a separate go/no-go check before the first additional session. The director needs to know the incremental staffing and materials commitment, whether prospective attendees will reserve or pay, and whether the extra session attracts additional attendance rather than simply moving Tuesday members. None of those answers is present in the current record. A test can collect them; an ongoing commitment would assume them.

## Scope and evidence

This report uses the corrected register frozen on April 4, 2026 and four supplied notes. It covers a fictional community repair workshop's January–March 2026 trial-to-membership pilot. Participants volunteered after seeing a newsletter or noticeboard. They were not sampled from the city, and the newsletter audience size was not retained. Trial conversion therefore means purchases divided by people who attended the trial, not conversion of newsletter readers or residents. S-A

The three cohorts contain distinct people, and each first paid member made one $45 purchase. Refunds are separate monetary records and do not alter the count who initially purchased. The March 31 memo reported 65 first paid members, including 29 in March. The coordinator's April 4 correction explicitly replaces that March count with 30 after checking an omitted payment. This is a documented correction, not an unresolved range or an additional independent observation. No other correction is inferred. S-A, S-B

## Purchase conversion

| Cohort | Trial attendees | First paid members | Initial purchase conversion |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| January | 40 | 16 | 40.0% |
| February | 50 | 20 | 40.0% |
| March | 60 | 30 | 50.0% |
| Total | 150 | 66 | 44.0% |


The total rate is 66 divided by 150, pooling distinct people across the three observed cohorts. March is ten percentage points above either earlier cohort. The records do not explain why. Changing participant composition, repeated exposure to the workshop, and ordinary variation are possible explanations, not measured causes. All trials were on Tuesdays; these figures cannot be transferred directly to Saturday attendance. S-M, S-D

The higher March conversion justifies asking a more focused expansion question, but not projecting 50% conversion for everyone invited to another venue. There is no citywide denominator, sampling design, or evidence that the free trial audience represents people willing to travel to another site. The unavailable promotional leaflet's “80%” claim cannot supply that missing benchmark: its population, definitions, period, and refund treatment are unknown. It is excluded from the numerical comparison. S-A, S-D

## Revenue and supplied costs

| USD | January | February | March | Total |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Gross first-month membership revenue | 720.00 | 900.00 | 1,350.00 | 2,970.00 |
| Refunds deducted | 0.00 | 0.00 | 135.00 | 135.00 |
| Processing fees deducted | 21.60 | 27.00 | 40.50 | 89.10 |
| Incremental staffing and materials deducted | 360.00 | 420.00 | 600.00 | 1,380.00 |
| Contribution before omitted costs | 338.40 | 453.00 | 574.50 | 1,365.90 |


The bridge is $2,970.00 gross revenue less $135.00 refunds, $89.10 fees, and $1,380.00 incremental staffing and materials. Gross revenue also independently reconciles to 66 first purchases at $45. The resulting $1,365.90 is a contribution after the listed costs. Rent, existing management time, insurance, utilities, and central overhead are absent. Calling it net profit would give the director a false view of affordability. S-M, S-A

March's larger contribution does not demonstrate better per-session economics: the register does not give comparable session counts, capacity usage, or the cost of a Saturday slot. Nor does $135 of refunds establish how many people refunded; the file provides money, not refund-recipient identity. The additional session needs its own estimate. Existing positive contribution creates a reason to investigate, not a pre-approved spending allowance.

## What retention establishes

| Cohort | Members with completed eight-week window | Active in days 43–56 | Observed active rate |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| January | 16 | 10 | 62.5% |
| February | 20 | 12 | 60.0% |
| March | Not yet observable | Not yet observable | Not yet observable |
| Eligible cohorts combined | 36 | 22 | 61.1% |


The comparable combined rate is 22 active members divided by 36 eligible first paid members. It is weighted by eligible people, rather than an unweighted average of the monthly percentages. March's empty cells represent incomplete observation windows; adding March members to the denominator or treating them as zero active would bias the result downward. Conversely, assuming March matches the earlier cohorts would invent a result. S-A, S-M

“Active” means attending at least one members' workshop during days 43–56 after purchase. It does not establish subscription renewal, repeated payment, lifetime value, or attendance every week. The available windows show that some earlier purchasers continued to use the workshop, which supports further learning about sustained participation. They do not prove that an additional session will retain more members. March should be revisited only after its defined windows actually complete.

## Participant explanations and alternatives

Six optional exit conversations provide possible explanations to test. Four participants later purchased and two did not, but this small convenience sample cannot estimate the conversion rate of the wider pilot. Comments mention supported repair work, access to tools and guidance, a booked hour, and scheduling constraints. The Saturday references are especially useful for designing a question: one buyer mentioned changing shifts, one non-buyer had Tuesday childcare conflicts, and another would try Saturday without promising payment. S-C

These observations distinguish interest in another time slot from evidence for a second location. They also distinguish liking free help from willingness to pay. Continuing Tuesdays while improving the invitation or booking process remains a plausible alternative. A four-session Saturday test in the existing room is more closely aligned with the documented scheduling question than a new lease, although staffing and materials still create an unquoted commitment. S-D

## Decision conditions and next review

Before proceeding, obtain a written incremental cost estimate covering all four proposed Saturday sessions and identify what existing costs or commitments would change. Then invite explicit reservations under clearly stated terms. Record new versus existing members and whether a booking substitutes for a Tuesday visit. Select a spending cap and minimum booking requirement after seeing the estimate; no defensible numeric threshold can be calculated from the present records alone.

If those conditions support a bounded test, record each session's attendance, first purchases, refunds, staff time, and materials. Retain denominators and dates, and record no-shows separately from attendance. At the end of the four-session test, compare incremental contribution and operational burden against the predeclared commitment. Follow members long enough to assess the same eight-week definition before drawing retention conclusions. These are proposed measurements, not results already obtained.

Proceed to an ongoing second session only if actual additional participation and revenue justify its full incremental costs and the team can operate it consistently. Reconsider or stop if bookings are mostly displaced Tuesday attendance, costs exceed the agreed cap, or the service experience deteriorates. This preserves the promising evidence in the current pilot while requiring the next decision to rest on the evidence it actually needs.

claims.csv

claim_id,wording,source_and_locator,kind,status,population_time_unit
C01,"66 of 150 trial attendees initially purchased, 44.0%",S-M rows 2–4; S-A cohort and correction paragraphs,calculated result,supported,distinct January–March 2026 trial attendees
C02,March is 30 paid members; early count 29 is superseded,S-A correction paragraph; S-B preliminary memo,reported correction,supported,March 2026
C03,"Monthly conversion 40%, 40%, 50%",S-M rows 2–4,calculated result,supported,within-cohort trial attendees
C04,"Gross 2970 less refunds 135, fees 89.10 and listed costs 1380 yields contribution 1365.90 USD",S-M rows 2–4,calculated result,supported,January–March first-month purchases
C05,Contribution is not net profit; rent and other overhead are omitted,S-A final paragraph,scope qualification,supported,supplied costs only
C06,"22 of 36 eligible members were active in days 43–56, 61.1%",S-M rows 2–3; S-A active definition,calculated result,supported,January and February only
C07,"March retention is not yet observable, not zero",S-A active definition; S-M row 4 blank fields,observed data status,supported,as of April 4 freeze
C08,Pilot does not establish citywide demand or causal effects,S-A sampling and method paragraphs,interpretation,qualified,volunteer newsletter/noticeboard participants
C09,"Six optional conversations: four later buyers, two non-buyers",S-C method paragraph and N01–N06,reported observation,supported,"convenience sample, not representative"
C10,Saturday interest is not a commitment to pay or evidence for a second location,"S-C N03,N05,N06; scope paragraph",interpretation,qualified,six optional conversations
C11,Four existing-room Saturday slots are available; costs remain unquoted,S-D first paragraph,reported operating option,supported,next four weeks after April 3 note
C12,Unavailable 80% leaflet is not a comparable benchmark,S-D second paragraph,source limitation,unverified,unknown definitions and time window
C13,"Prepare a bounded test conditional on cost and bookings, not permanent expansion","S-A,S-C,S-D; report reasoning",recommendation,qualified,"proposed decision, not approved action"
C14,No refund-recipient count or renewal revenue can be inferred,S-M columns; S-A definitions,interpretation,qualified,monetary refunds and attendance measure only

sources.csv

source_id,title,author,date,source_type,path,coverage,access,sha256
S-A,Pilot register and correction,Priya Rowan,2026-04-04,supplied fictional fixture,sources/01-method-and-correction.md,entire note,read in full,45b790525c09f4b898506f46f3866d3488e7b42ecd444deb6505a51df53bb8cf
S-B,Early monthly summary,Evan Hale,2026-03-31,supplied fictional fixture,sources/02-early-memo.md,entire note,read in full,98e8bda2f2896b9991919fed236cb40d65bc80fef1e398c769f170b35143d743
S-C,Six optional exit conversations,Jules Marin,2026-03-22 to 2026-03-29,supplied fictional fixture,sources/03-participant-notes.md,N01–N06 and method note,read in full,b77ff0f3ad0ac6cbce420c4d1594e9f81e960590f92cf1d321a45de3af0372f0
S-D,Scheduling and commitments,Tessa Reed,2026-04-03,supplied fictional fixture,sources/04-operating-options.md,entire note,read in full,76796d6605272fadabc04eab89c27ad0b52e0d41c218420c20aa5522e231c4b4
S-M,Corrected pilot metrics,Northline Workshop; coordinator named in S-A,2026-04-04 freeze,supplied fictional fixture,sources/pilot-metrics.csv,CSV physical rows 2–4,read in full,6be0fc1b8d61b7a5b7536c4e26040c94aec8afd8bdb2637ca13ac2451499e348

chart-data.csv

metric,value,unit,period,population,numerator,denominator,source,transformation
initial purchase conversion,40.0000,percent,2026-01,trial attendees,16,40,S-M row 2; S-A definitions,first_paid_members / trial_attendees * 100
contribution before omitted costs,338.40,USD,2026-01,first-month purchases,,,S-M row 2; S-A exclusions,gross - refunds - processing fees - incremental staff/materials
eight-week active rate,62.5000,percent,2026-01,completed days 43–56 observation windows,10,16,S-M row 2; S-A active definition,active / eligible * 100
initial purchase conversion,40.0000,percent,2026-02,trial attendees,20,50,S-M row 3; S-A definitions,first_paid_members / trial_attendees * 100
contribution before omitted costs,453.00,USD,2026-02,first-month purchases,,,S-M row 3; S-A exclusions,gross - refunds - processing fees - incremental staff/materials
eight-week active rate,60.0000,percent,2026-02,completed days 43–56 observation windows,12,20,S-M row 3; S-A active definition,active / eligible * 100
initial purchase conversion,50.0000,percent,2026-03,trial attendees,30,60,S-M row 4; S-A definitions,first_paid_members / trial_attendees * 100
contribution before omitted costs,574.50,USD,2026-03,first-month purchases,,,S-M row 4; S-A exclusions,gross - refunds - processing fees - incremental staff/materials