Market Sizing Sanity Check

Fictional worked illustration from the public repository, not a recorded agent run or a verified client outcome. Any additional figures, thresholds and market signals are scenario assumptions, not observed results. No generated PDF or finished deck is included.

Sample output

All inputs are fictional. The calculation fixture is example-calculations.json; the full method is in the worked example.

Executive answer

The model gives a £31.8m year-three base and a £13.5–52.4m scenario range. £50m is near the upside case, not a supported base. The £20m entry threshold fails in the downside, and the £4m entrant target requires 397 active customers versus 240 supported by current sales capacity.

Primary estimate

7,500 eligible firms
x 70% workflow fit
x 60% paid adoption
x 14 seats per firm
x £720 annual realized price
= £31.752m annual supplier revenue (approximately £31.8m)

The units reconcile to pounds per year. Paid adoption and seats per firm are the least certain drivers.

Independent cross-check

4 scaled providers x £5.0m UK revenue
+ 8 specialists x £1.2m UK revenue
= £29.6m current supplier revenue

The cross-check uses provider revenue bands rather than customer and seat assumptions. The base is 7.27% above it, but the figures describe different periods. No growth or scope bridge has been supplied, so retain the wide scenario range rather than manufacturing convergence.

Decision sensitivity

Next evidence

Run 15–20 buyer interviews, verify bundled-module revenue, and rebuild the channel plan around a credible path to 400 active customers before approving full entry investment.