hidden decision risk finder

    by nowrich

    1

    Deconstruct complex business decisions to expose hidden risks, biases, and weak evidence.

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    Works with the AI tools you already use

    CClaude CodeCCursorCCodex CLIGGitHub CopilotGGemini CLI+17 more

    See it in action

    You say

    Audit our decision to delay the V2 launch. Marketing says we aren't ready, but Engineering says we are. I suspect sunk cost bias regarding the legacy API is at play.

    Your agent does

    Decision Risk Map: V2 Launch Delay

    The Decision

    What: Postpone V2 release by 3 months. Who decides: CEO based on CMO/CTO input.

    Hidden Assumptions

    | Assumption | Evidence Level | Falsification Condition | Risk | |---|---|---|---| | Legacy API is essential for V2 | Weak | Successful beta test without legacy hooks | High |

    Distortion Signals

    • ✓ Sunk cost present: $200k spent on legacy API maintenance mentioned as reason to wait.
    • ✓ Politics overriding data: Marketing fear of churn vs Engineering performance metrics.

    What you get

    Expose hidden assumptions in strategic planning.Identify where subjective judgment overrides hard data.Detect political or bias-driven distortions in workflows.Unblock stalled decisions by identifying the specific friction point.

    About this skill

    The problem

    Critical business decisions are often stalled by hidden biases, unstated assumptions, and subjective judgments disguised as hard facts. Founders and operators struggle to identify why a decision feels distorted or where evidence is actually missing from the reasoning process.

    What it does

    • Identifies and ranks input variables by their actual impact on the final choice.
    • Surfaces hidden assumptions and defines specific conditions that would prove them wrong.
    • Pins subjective judgment calls to specific roles to prevent accountability gaps.
    • Maps evidence strength to distinguish between data-driven conclusions and gut feel.
    • Detects cognitive distortions like sunk cost bias, recency bias, and political interference.

    Why this beats prompting it yourself

    Generic prompts often result in surface-level pros and cons lists that ignore the underlying power dynamics and cognitive biases. This skill uses a structured diagnostic framework to force the disclosure of falsification conditions and overweighting flags that standard reasoning models overlook.

    Use cases

    • Auditing a stalled product roadmap decision to find the hidden blocker.
    • Evaluating a high-stakes hire where internal politics might be overriding data.
    • Mapping the risk of a new market entry based on weak evidence or assumptions.
    • Analyzing why a specific project budget keeps ballooning despite "data-driven" planning.

    Known limitations

    Requires the user to provide specific context regarding stakeholders and goals. It cannot audit a decision without access to the inputs and perceived constraints of the organization.

    How to install

    Drop the file into your AI Agent. Works with Claude, Cursor, ChatGPT, and 20+ more.

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