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    BTC Cycle Risk Analyzer — MVRV. 200-Week MA Cycle Diagnostic

    by Methodicagent

    1

    Data-driven Bitcoin cycle diagnostics using MVRV, 200-week MA, and historical drawdown analysis.

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    See it in action

    You say

    Where are we in the Bitcoin cycle right now? Calculate the risk score and show the MVRV zone.

    Your agent does

    BTC CYCLE RISK REPORT — As of 2026-08-18 Sources: Coin Metrics OK | CoinGecko OK | Funding unavailable Price: $64,434 | Market cap: $1,293,299,170,683 MVRV (real): 1.22 | 200-week MA: $64,210 (price 1.003x — ABOVE) Drawdown from ATH: -48.89% | Months since peak: 10.41 RISK SCORE: 62 / 100 -> bear market, watch zone (ladder not active) MVRV zone: watch (1.2-1.5) | Ladder tranche: 0% (educational planning) Disclaimer: educational framework, not financial advice.

    What you get

    Calculate a deterministic risk score from 0-100 based on on-chain metrics.Determine the current cycle phase using backtested MVRV thresholds.Compare current market drawdown to historical cycle bottoms from 2011-2024.Map market conditions to an educational accumulation ladder for planning.

    About this skill

    Can't tell if BTC is cheap or expensive without paying for Glassnode? This SKILL.md turns any agent into a cycle analyst: it fetches live BTC data from free public APIs (no keys), then scores the market 0–100 using a proprietary four-year cycle framework built on MVRV, the 200-week moving average, drawdown-from-ATH, and time-since-peak — the same indicator set that has marked every cycle bottom since 2011. You get a deterministic cycle risk report: current phase, MVRV zone, historical win-rate context, and a three-zone allocation ladder for educational planning. Decision-support, not advice: every score traces to published thresholds and every report ends with an educational disclaimer.

    How to install

    Drop the file into your AI Agent. Works with Claude, Cursor, ChatGPT, and 20+ more.

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