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Grok Bot+18 agentsAutonomous Breakout Failure Risk Detector
Systematic technical analysis for screening breakout setups and detecting false-breakout risks using price and volume.
$14.99
Autonomous Breakout Failure Risk Detector
Example session with this skill installed
Analyze the breakout attempt on AAPL on the 1h timeframe. Current price is $195.50, range high was $194.00. Volume is 2x average. Here is the OHLCV data for the last 20 candles.
- Read your context and instructions
- Compiled the autonomous breakout failure
I have analyzed the price action for AAPL on the 1h timeframe. The breakout attempt shows strong initial volume confirmation but faces immediate overhead resistance from the daily timeframe.
Breakout Failure Risk Report: Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Venue: NASDAQ
Asset class: Equity
Timeframe: 1h
Data timestamp: 2024-05-20 14:00 EST
Data quality: High
1. Executive signal
- Structure: Confirmed breakout (Candle close > $194.00)
- Direction: Upside
- Failure risk: Moderate
- Confidence: Medium
Rationale: Price closed above the 3-week range high with 2x relative volume, but momentum is stretching relative to the 20-period EMA.
2. Key levels
| Level Type | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Breakout Level | $194.00 | Observed |
| Support/Retest Zone | $193.80 - $194.20 | Calculated |
| Resistance Target 1 | $198.50 | Illustrative |
| Invalidation Level | $192.50 | Observed Swing Low |
3. Multi-factor validation
| Factor | Observation | Status | Explanation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price Close | Closed at $195.50 | Supports | Decisive close above $194.00 resistance. |
| Volume | 2x 20-period MA | Supports | Significant participation on the break. |
| Trend | Above 20/50 EMA | Supports | Alignment with short-term bullish trend. |
| Volatility | ATR (14) is $1.20 | Weakens | Move is > 1.5 ATR from the breakout origin. |
4. Scenario map
Continuation: Confirmation requires a successful retest of $194.00 followed by a move above $195.80. Invalidation on a close below $193.50.
Failed Breakout: Risk increases if price returns inside the range ($194.00) on declining volume. Target for failure is range midline at $190.00.
- Range Continuation: Neutral if price chops between $193.50 and $196.00 without clear follow-through.
Next steps
- Monitor the $194.00 retest on the next two 1h candles.
- Check the 4h timeframe for RSI overbought conditions.
- Verify if broader market (QQQ) is supporting the sector move.
Connects securely to your tools. The creator never sees your data.
About this skill
High-volatility environments make breakout trading dangerous without a systematic way to filter noise from actual momentum. This skill provides a disciplined technical analysis workflow for detecting false breakouts and screening potential trade setups across multiple asset classes.
What it does
- Structure Identification defines horizontal, trendline, or channel-based resistance and support levels using prior swing highs and lows.
- Confirmation Validation evaluates price close versus wicks, volume expansion, and follow-through to distinguish attempts from confirmed breaks.
- Risk Assessment classifies failure risk as Low to High based on rejection wicks, range re-entry, and momentum divergence.
- Multi-Factor Scoring calculates a setup quality score (0-100) based on trend alignment, volatility, and liquidity conditions.
- Scenario Mapping builds conditional models for continuation, reversal, and range re-entry with explicit invalidation triggers.
How it works
- Supply OHLCV candle data and instrument details like ticker, venue, and timeframe.
- The agent identifies the core range boundaries and the specific breakout level being tested.
- The detector runs the multi-factor validation check including volume profile and trend alignment.
- It generates a risk report with scenario triggers and an illustrative trade plan if requested.
Frameworks & tools
This skill uses technical analysis principles applicable to equities, FX, futures, and crypto. It relies on OHLCV data, moving averages, ATR, and relative volume metrics.
Why this beats prompting it yourself
Generic prompts often fall for hindsight bias or fail to distinguish between a wick and a candle close. This skill enforces a rigid data validation and multi-factor scoring system that demands evidence for volume and trend alignment before flagging a setup as confirmed.
Use cases
- Screening a list of potential breakout candidates for high-probability setups.
- Auditing a live breakout attempt to determine if volume supports the move.
- Defining precise invalidation levels for risk management on an existing trade.
- Creating conditional scenario plans for assets approaching major multi-year resistance.
Known limitations
Does not support autonomous execution or live market scanning. Requires user-provided or tool-sourced OHLCV data. Qualitative risk categories are not statistically calibrated probabilities.
Requires OHLCV data. No live scanning or order execution. Qualitative risk levels are not win-rate probabilities. Volume assessment requires comparable lookback data.
How to use
- 1
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- 2
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- 3
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